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FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Saturday, 26 September 2026

Czechia 1–2 CroatiaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 26 September 2026

Czechia
1–2
Croatia win
Croatia
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Czechia at 33%, draw at 25%, Croatia at 42%. The match ended 1-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Croatia.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Czechia win
33%
Draw
25%
Croatia win
42%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.44 – 1.64
Total 3.09
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (-0.1 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's call at 83%, with both sides generating 3.22 combined xG and Croatia's 1.70 shot quality giving them a 42% win probability despite playing away."

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