FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Thursday, 12 November 2026

England 2–1 CroatiaMatch recap · Thursday, 12 November 2026

England
2–1
England win
Croatia

How Bawler's pick did

Bawler's pickWon
England or Draw✓
England Over 11.5 Shots✓
England Over 2.5 Shots on Target✓
England Over 3.5 Corners✓

Logged before kickoff, settled from the final stats. Bawler's pick record →

Pre-match probability vs result

England win
83%
Result
Draw
12%
Croatia win
5%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.9 – 0.6
Total 3.5
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.8 – 1.2
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 3.5.

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