What we expect
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one first-half goal: 72%. Based on how often each side shoots and wins corners before the break, not a share of their full-match numbers.
In plain English
SK Brann should win this one. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Lincoln Red Imps. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
SK Brann to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win SK Brann vs Lincoln Red Imps?
Bawler's model rates this match: SK Brann are favoured (77% win probability vs 7% for Lincoln Red Imps, 16% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for SK Brann vs Lincoln Red Imps?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is SK Brann 2-0 Lincoln Red Imps (13.2% probability). Expected total goals: 3.15.
How does Bawler predict SK Brann vs Lincoln Red Imps?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives SK Brann 77%, the draw 16% and Lincoln Red Imps 7%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in SK Brann vs Lincoln Red Imps?
BTTS: No (56% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 2.48 and away expected goals 0.66.
Over or under 2.5 goals in SK Brann vs Lincoln Red Imps?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.15. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).