Our model makes SK Brann clear favourites for this Conference League game, with a 60% chance of winning. AGF are given 18%, and the draw 22%. If you want one score, our predicted score is SK Brann 2–1 AGF, the most likely SK Brann win (10%). We expect 3.0 goals in total: 2.0 for SK Brann and 1.0 for AGF. Both teams scoring is 55% and three or more goals is 59%.
On shots, our forecast is 18.6 for SK Brann and 10.4 for AGF, with 7.3 and 3.5 on target, and corners at 9.5 to 2.8. So we expect SK Brann to do more of the shooting.
In their last six games SK Brann have four wins, two draws and no defeats, while AGF have no wins, two draws and four defeats. Both drew their most recent match.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties.
The grey number is their average over the last six.
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
SK Brann to win is 60% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Bawler's model rates this match: SK Brann are favoured (60% win probability vs 18% for AGF, 22% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
Bawler's predicted score is SK Brann 2-1 AGF: the most likely score if SK Brann win, which is the likeliest result (60%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.8%. Expected total goals: 3.0.
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives SK Brann 60%, the draw 22% and AGF 18%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 55% chance. That is based on SK Brann expecting 2.03 goals and AGF 1.01.
Bawler's model expects 3.0 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 59%.
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.