Match prediction·SPAIN: LaLiga·Saturday 15 Aug, 19:30 UTC

Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
43.9% home31.6% draw24.5% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
SevillastepRayo Vallecano
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10

Sevilla average 4.6 corners per game at home this season (19 competitive matches). Rayo Vallecano average 4.6 corners per game away from home this season (26 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
78%
Not both teams to score
51%
Over 3.5 goals
22%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

Sevilla fixtures & form →Rayo Vallecano fixtures & form →

Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Sevilla and Rayo Vallecano — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Sevilla 44% · draw 32% · Rayo Vallecano 24%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

Sevilla predictions & form →Rayo Vallecano predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
More match predictions ▶
Betting picks & odds for this match (18+) →

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.