FT · Spain: La Liga · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Espanyol 1–1 SevillaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 06 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Espanyol at 49%, draw at 26%, Sevilla at 25%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Espanyol to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Espanyol win
49%
Draw
26%
Actual ✓
Sevilla win
25%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.62 – 1.09
Total 2.72
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 75%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 75%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 29%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Sevilla's fight to avoid the drop collides with Espanyol's superior attacking output (1.62 xG vs 1.14), making Over 1.5 Goals the high-confidence call at 76%."