FT · SPAIN: LaLiga · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Athletic Club 1–3 SevillaMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Athletic Club or draw at 79%. Bawler had Athletic Club at 53%, the draw at 26% and Sevilla at 21%. The match finished 1–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Athletic Club win
53%
Draw
26%
Sevilla win
21%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 0.9
Total 2.5
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.5 against our forecast)
The match produced 1.5 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Athletic Club or draw
Pre-match: 79%
Missed
Medium confidence
Athletic Club to win
Pre-match: 53%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 25%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.