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PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II prediction — Eredivisie · Sat 31 Oct · 17:45 UK

Eredivisie · Sat 31 Oct · 17:45 UK
PSV Eindhoven 88Draw 8Willem II 4
The call
88%
PSV Eindhoven to win
Calls on the result published at 88%+ have landed 84% of the time
56 of 67 settledFull record →
4.5
Goals expected
5d 16hUntil lineups lock

Our combination for this match

3 legs · built by the model
PSV Eindhoven or Draw96%
PSV Eindhoven Over 21.5 Shots80%
PSV Eindhoven Over 6.5 Corners77%
63%
chance all land
Build your own →Multiplying the legs gives 59%. These are from one match and move together, so the real chance is higher.
01

Team stats

What we expect from each side, next to how they have been doing lately.

PSV EindhovenWillem II
IN SHORTPSV Eindhoven are forecast to come out ahead on every measure here, with about three times as many corners as Willem II (9.5 v 3.1).
GoalsPSV Eindhoven +2.9
3.7
Last 6 avg 1.2
▲ Forecast 2.6 above recent
4+ goals in 0 of 6
0.8
Last 6 avg 1.0
▼ Forecast 0.2 below recent
1+ goals in 5 of 6
ShotsPSV Eindhoven +17.0
27.1
Last 6 avg 15.0
▲ Forecast 12.1 above recent
27+ shots in 0 of 6
10.1
Last 6 avg 11.0
▼ Forecast 0.9 below recent
10+ shots in 4 of 6
On targetPSV Eindhoven +3.9
7.9
Last 6 avg 4.0
▲ Forecast 3.9 above recent
8+ on target in 0 of 6
4.0
Last 6 avg 2.8
▲ Forecast 1.1 above recent
4+ on target in 2 of 6
CornersPSV Eindhoven +6.4
9.5
Last 6 avg 5.3
▲ Forecast 4.1 above recent
9+ corners in 1 of 6
3.1
Last 6 avg 4.8
▼ Forecast 1.7 below recent
3+ corners in 4 of 6
GoalsPSV Eindhoven +0.6
0.8
No recent record
4+ goals in 0 of 6
0.2
No recent record
1+ goals in 5 of 6
ShotsPSV Eindhoven +7.6
12.5
No recent record
27+ shots in 0 of 6
5.0
No recent record
10+ shots in 4 of 6
On targetPSV Eindhoven +1.9
3.6
No recent record
8+ on target in 0 of 6
1.6
No recent record
4+ on target in 2 of 6
CornersPSV Eindhoven +3.0
4.4
No recent record
9+ corners in 1 of 6
1.5
No recent record
3+ corners in 4 of 6
GoalsPSV Eindhoven +2.3
2.9
No recent record
4+ goals in 0 of 6
0.6
No recent record
1+ goals in 5 of 6
ShotsPSV Eindhoven +9.4
14.5
No recent record
27+ shots in 0 of 6
5.1
No recent record
10+ shots in 4 of 6
On targetPSV Eindhoven +2.0
4.3
No recent record
8+ on target in 0 of 6
2.3
No recent record
4+ on target in 2 of 6
CornersPSV Eindhoven +3.4
5.0
No recent record
9+ corners in 1 of 6
1.6
No recent record
3+ corners in 4 of 6

Each card is drawn on one scale, so the two bars are directly comparable. “Above recent” means our forecast is higher than their average over the last six.

02

Match odds

How likely the big moments are, and what they add up to.

86%
Goal before half-time
At least one goal in the first 45 minutes.
55%
Both teams score
Each side finds the net at least once.
83%
3 or more goals
Three or more goals in the match, from either side.
Key takeaways
FAVOURITES
PSV Eindhoven lead on every measure: goals (3.7 v 0.8), shots (27.1 v 10.1), on target (7.9 v 4.0).
OPEN GAME
Goals at both ends are likely: 55% both teams score, and 83% for three or more goals.
EARLY GOAL
PSV Eindhoven are likelier to score first half: 82% to score before half-time, against 24% for Willem II. 86% that either side does.
FORM CHECK
PSV Eindhoven are forecast above recent form: 3.7 goals expected, against 1.2 on average over their last six.
03

First-half chances

How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time. A longer bar means more likely.

12+ shots
56%
<10%
14+ shots
39%
<10%
3+ shots on target
66%
24%
5+ shots on target
30%
<10%
3+ corners
77%
20%
5+ corners
44%
<10%

Our numbers, most likely first

Ranked by our probability, strongest first.

MarketProbability
Over 1.5 goals94%
Over 2.5 goals83%
Over 3.5 goals66%

In plain English

PSV Eindhoven should win this one. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Willem II, and they have won three of the last five between them. Expect goals: the model sees around five.

What would change the call

PSV Eindhoven to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.

PSV Eindhoven lead 1–0 at half-time88% → 94%
Willem II lead 1–0 at half-time88% → 46%
Goalless at half-time88% → 74%

Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.

PSV Eindhoven · last 6

Dv Feyenoord1–119 shots
Wat FC Porto1–018 shots
Lat ADO Den Haag1–215 shots
Lat RB Leipzig0–111 shots
Wv SC Heerenveen2–016 shots
Lat FC Twente2–311 shots

Willem II · last 6

Lv Cambuur1–611 shots
Lat Sparta Rotterdam2–313 shots
Lat FC Utrecht1–39 shots
Lv Fortuna Sittard0–115 shots
Lat Ajax1–510 shots
Dat AZ Alkmaar1–18 shots

First half — what we expect

PSV Eindhoven
82%
to score before half-time
Willem II
24%
to score before half-time

Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 86%

PSV EindhovenWillem II
12.51st-half shots5.0
avg 7.3 · 4 away · 13+ in 0/6
avg 5.8 · 4 away · 5+ in 4/6
3.61st-half shots on target1.6
avg 2.3 · 4 away · 4+ in 0/6
avg 1.3 · 4 away · 2+ in 2/6
4.41st-half corners1.5
avg 2.5 · 4 away · 4+ in 1/6
avg 2.0 · 4 away · 1+ in 6/6

How the match splits

1st half2nd half
Shots · PSV Eindhoven12.514.5
Shots · Willem II5.05.1
Shots on target · PSV Eindhoven3.64.3
Shots on target · Willem II1.62.3
Corners · PSV Eindhoven4.45.0
Corners · Willem II1.51.6
How to read this

First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).

Second half — who scores?

At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.

Model inputs

PSV Eindhoven form (last 6)L W L L W D
Expected goals gap (home minus away)+2.9 / match
Head-to-head, last 5PSV Eindhoven 3 · Draws 1 · Willem II 1
Willem II in their league tableBottom quarter

Head to head

Feb 2025PSV Eindhoven 1–1 Willem II
Sept 2024Willem II 0–2 PSV Eindhoven
May 2022PSV Eindhoven 4–2 Willem II
Sept 2021Willem II 2–1 PSV Eindhoven
May 2021Willem II 0–2 PSV Eindhoven
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Common questions

Who will win PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II?

Bawler's model rates this match: PSV Eindhoven are favoured (88% win probability vs 4% for Willem II, 8% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.

What is the predicted score for PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is PSV Eindhoven 3-0 Willem II (9.1% probability). Expected total goals: 4.5.

How does Bawler predict PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II?

Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives PSV Eindhoven 88%, the draw 8% and Willem II 4%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II?

Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 55% chance. That is based on PSV Eindhoven expecting 3.72 goals and Willem II 0.82.

Over or under 2.5 goals in PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II?

Bawler's model expects 4.5 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 83%.

Around this fixture

Eredivisie table →
All fixtures & results →PSV Eindhoven form →Willem II form →