FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 25 October 2026
PSV Eindhoven 1–1 Feyenoord RotterdamMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 25 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was PSV Eindhoven or draw at 69%. Bawler had PSV Eindhoven at 46%, the draw at 23% and Feyenoord Rotterdam at 31%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
PSV Eindhoven win
46%
Draw
23%
Result
Feyenoord Rotterdam win
31%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.6
Total 3.5
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced 1.5 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 87%
Landed
Medium confidence
PSV Eindhoven or draw
Pre-match: 69%
Landed
Outside shot
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 32%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 87%, backed by PSV's 1.95 xG advantage and a combined 3.52 expected goal tally that favours an open contest."