Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelPhiladelphia Union on top, and Quinn Sullivan getting plenty of shots away.
Philadelphia Union v New England Revolution prediction
Philadelphia Union are favourites on our numbers: 58% to win, against 20% for New England Revolution and 22% for a draw. If you want one score, our predicted score is Philadelphia Union 2–1 New England Revolution, the most likely Philadelphia Union win (10%). Philadelphia Union are expected to score 2.1 goals and New England Revolution 1.2, 3.3 between them. Both teams scoring is 60% and three or more goals is 63%.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Philadelphia Union have won three, New England Revolution two. When they last met, it finished Philadelphia Union 1–2 New England Revolution, in Oct 2026. On shots, our forecast is 19.0 for Philadelphia Union and 9.5 for New England Revolution, with 6.6 and 3.3 on target, and corners at 6.7 to 3.4. So we expect Philadelphia Union to do more of the shooting.
On form, Philadelphia Union have two wins, two draws and two defeats from their last six games, and New England Revolution have four wins, no draws and two defeats. Bawler's pick combines Philadelphia Union or Draw, Philadelphia Union Over 14.5 Shots and Quinn Sullivan 2+ Shots. We make the chance of all three coming in 50%, a fair price of Evens (2.00).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most shots
Shots we expect them to takeMost on target
Shots on target we expectMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Philadelphia Union · last 6
New England Revolution · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Philadelphia Union or draw is 80% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025–2026 and 2026, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
MLS table →Common questions
Who will win Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution?
Bawler's model rates this match: Philadelphia Union are favoured (58% win probability vs 20% for New England Revolution, 22% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution?
Bawler's predicted score is Philadelphia Union 2-1 New England Revolution: the most likely score if Philadelphia Union win, which is the likeliest result (58%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.7%. Expected total goals: 3.3.
How does Bawler predict Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Philadelphia Union 58%, the draw 22% and New England Revolution 20%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 60% chance. That is based on Philadelphia Union expecting 2.09 goals and New England Revolution 1.16.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution?
Bawler's model expects 3.3 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 63%.
When are the Philadelphia Union v New England Revolution line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Philadelphia Union v New England Revolution?
Philadelphia Union or Draw (80%), Philadelphia Union Over 14.5 Shots (79%), Quinn Sullivan 2+ Shots (73%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 50% chance, a fair price of Evens (2.00). 18+, please gamble responsibly.