Bawler's pick
4 legs, built by our modelAn open game: both sides to score, with Dor Turgeman and Quinn Sullivan both getting shots away.
New England Revolution v Philadelphia Union prediction
Our model makes Philadelphia Union favourites for this MLS game, giving them a 42% chance of winning. New England Revolution are 33% and the draw is 25%. If you want one score, our predicted score is New England Revolution 1–2 Philadelphia Union, the most likely Philadelphia Union win (9%). Our expected goals are 1.5 for New England Revolution and 1.7 for Philadelphia Union, 3.1 in all. Both sides are more likely than not to score (63%) and three or more goals is 61%.
We expect New England Revolution to have 10.3 shots (3.6 on target) and Philadelphia Union 16.3 (4.7 on target), and corners at 4.2 to 5.4. That points to Philadelphia Union doing more of the attacking. Of their last five meetings on our records, New England Revolution have won two, Philadelphia Union three. The last meeting ended Philadelphia Union 1–2 New England Revolution, in Oct 2026.
In their last six games New England Revolution have four wins, no draws and two defeats, while Philadelphia Union have two wins, two draws and two defeats. New England Revolution lost their most recent match and Philadelphia Union won theirs. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Both Teams to Score, Over 21.5 Total Shots, Dor Turgeman 1+ Shot and Quinn Sullivan 1+ Shot. The chance all four land is 46% on our numbers, so the fair price is 6/5, or 2.16.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most shots
Shots we expect them to takeMost on target
Shots on target we expectMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
New England Revolution · last 6
Philadelphia Union · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Philadelphia Union or draw is 67% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025–2026 and 2026, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
MLS table →Common questions
Who will win New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union?
Bawler's model rates this match: Philadelphia Union are favoured (42% win probability vs 33% for New England Revolution, 25% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union?
Bawler's predicted score is New England Revolution 1-2 Philadelphia Union: the most likely score if Philadelphia Union win, which is the likeliest result (42%). Our model puts that exact score at 8.8%. Expected total goals: 3.1.
How does Bawler predict New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives New England Revolution 33%, the draw 25% and Philadelphia Union 42%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 63% chance. That is based on New England Revolution expecting 1.46 goals and Philadelphia Union 1.68.
Over or under 2.5 goals in New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union?
Bawler's model expects 3.1 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 61%.
When are the New England Revolution v Philadelphia Union line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for New England Revolution v Philadelphia Union?
Both Teams to Score (63%), Over 21.5 Total Shots (81%), Dor Turgeman 1+ Shot (82%), Quinn Sullivan 1+ Shot (88%). Our model gives all 4 landing together a 46% chance, a fair price of 6/5 (2.16). 18+, please gamble responsibly.