FT · France: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 31 October 2026
Troyes 2–0 Le MansMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 31 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Troyes or draw at 68%. Bawler had Troyes at 43%, the draw at 25% and Le Mans at 32%. The match finished 2–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Troyes win
43%
Result
Draw
25%
Le Mans win
32%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.4
Total 3.1
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−1.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.7 – 0.3
From the match itself
The match produced 1.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Troyes' 1.68 expected goals at home edges Le Mans' 1.42, projecting an Over 1.5 Goals outcome at 82% confidence in a fixture where the hosts hold a modest 11-point win probability advantage."