Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United prediction — Premier League · Sat 22 Aug · 15:00 UK

Premier League · Sat 22 Aug · 15:00 UK
Nottingham Forest 43Draw 27Leeds United 30
The call
77%
Over 1.5 goals
2.8
Goals expected
Full time
Final 0–1

How it finished

Leeds United beat Nottingham Forest 1–0. Bawler's model favoured Nottingham Forest at 43% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Leeds United 30%. It forecast 2.8 goals; only 1 was scored. Nottingham Forest had 12 shots (2 on target) to Leeds United's 11 (3), with 55% of the ball against 45%. On expected goals it was 0.7 to 0.5, so Nottingham Forest created the better chances and still lost the game.

Nottingham…Full-time statsLeeds United
55%Possession45%
0.7Expected goals (xG)0.5
12Shots11
2Shots on target3
6Shots inside box6
0Big chances0
3Corners2
2Saves3
15Fouls14
3Offsides3
2Yellow cards1
What we publishedBeforeAfter
ResultNottingham Forest 43%Leeds United (30% called)
Total goals2.81
Both teams to score56%No
Model callOver 1.5 Goals 77%Missed
Second callOver 2.5 Goals 53%Missed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

MarketProbability
Nottingham Forest to score78%
Over 1.5 goals77%
Leeds United to score71%
Under 3.5 goals69%

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (xG)+0.3 / match
Opponent strength indexTop quartile
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United?

Leeds United beat Nottingham Forest 1–0. Bawler's model favoured Nottingham Forest at 43% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Leeds United 30%. It forecast 2.8 goals; only 1 was scored. Nottingham Forest had 12 shots (2 on target) to Leeds United's 11 (3), with 55% of the ball against 45%. On expected goals it was 0.7 to 0.5, so Nottingham Forest created the better chances and still lost the game.

What was the final score in Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United?

Nottingham Forest 0–1 Leeds United, played on 22 Aug 2026 in the ENGLAND: Premier League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Nottingham Forest 43%, the draw 27% and Leeds United 30%.

What were the stats in Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United?

Full-time: Possession 55%–45%, Expected goals (xG) 0.7–0.5, Shots 12–11, Shots on target 2–3, Shots inside box 6–6, Big chances 0–0, Corners 3–2, Saves 2–3, Fouls 15–14, Offsides 3–3, Yellow cards 2–1.

Did both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United?

No. It finished 0–1, so Nottingham Forest failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 56% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Result — we said Nottingham Forest 43%, it finished Leeds United (30% called); Total goals — we said 2.8, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 56%, it finished No; Model call — we said Over 1.5 Goals 77%, it finished Missed; Second call — we said Over 2.5 Goals 53%, it finished Missed.

Around this fixture

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All fixtures & results →Nottingham Forest form →Leeds United form →