What we expect
In plain English
Northern Ireland should get at least a draw here. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Georgia. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Northern Ireland or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Northern Ireland vs Georgia?
Bawler's model rates this match: Northern Ireland are favoured (59% win probability vs 18% for Georgia, 23% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Northern Ireland vs Georgia?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Northern Ireland 1-1 Georgia (10.8% probability). Expected total goals: 2.93.
How does Bawler predict Northern Ireland vs Georgia?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Northern Ireland 59%, the draw 23% and Georgia 18%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Northern Ireland vs Georgia?
BTTS: Yes (54% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.95 and away expected goals 0.98.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Northern Ireland vs Georgia?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.93. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).