What we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Ukraine · last 6
Georgia · last 6
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Ukraine or draw is 80% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
Common questions
Who will win Ukraine vs Georgia?
Bawler's model rates this match: Ukraine are favoured (53% win probability vs 20% for Georgia, 27% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Ukraine vs Georgia?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Ukraine 1-0 Georgia (13.6% probability). Expected total goals: 2.4.
How does Bawler predict Ukraine vs Georgia?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Ukraine 53%, the draw 27% and Georgia 20%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Ukraine vs Georgia?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 46% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Ukraine expecting 1.57 goals and Georgia 0.86.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Ukraine vs Georgia?
Bawler's model expects 2.4 goals in total. It leans slightly towards two goals or fewer: over 2.5 goals is 44%.