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Bawler / Georgia vs Ukraine / Recap
FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Monday, 28 September 2026

Georgia 0–0 UkraineMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 28 September 2026

Georgia
0–0
Draw
Ukraine
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Georgia at 23%, draw at 26%, Ukraine at 51%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Ukraine to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Georgia win
23%
Draw
26%
Actual ✓
Ukraine win
51%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.07 – 1.70
Total 2.77
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-2.8 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 2.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
X2
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 30%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals carries a 77% forecast confidence, underpinned by Ukraine's 0.48 xG advantage and 48% win probability suggesting attacking intent that Georgia's 1.15 expected output cannot match."

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