Georgia 0–1 Northern IrelandMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 25 September 2026

0–1

Northern Ireland win

Northern Ireland

> 🧠 Model verdict

✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Georgia at 33%, draw at 27%, Northern Ireland at 41%. The match ended 0-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Northern Ireland.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Georgia win

33%

Draw

27%

Ireland win

41%

Actual ✓

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.33 – 1.51

Total 2.84

Actual

0 – 1

Total 1 (-1.8 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 1.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed

High confidence

Over 1.5 Goals

Pre-match: 77%

✗ Lost

Medium confidence

Over 2.5 Goals

Pre-match: 54%

✗ Lost

Outside shot

Draw

Pre-match: 27%

✗ Lost

> What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 78%, grounded in combined xG of 2.86 and Northern Ireland's slight edge in win probability (39% vs 34%) that suggests attacking intent from both sides."

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