What we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Hungary · last 6
Northern Ireland · last 6
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Hungary or draw is 72% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
Common questions
Who will win Hungary vs Northern Ireland?
Bawler's model rates this match: Hungary are favoured (42% win probability vs 28% for Northern Ireland, 30% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Hungary vs Northern Ireland?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Hungary 1-1 Northern Ireland (13.9% probability). Expected total goals: 2.2.
How does Bawler predict Hungary vs Northern Ireland?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Hungary 42%, the draw 30% and Northern Ireland 28%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Hungary vs Northern Ireland?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 45% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Hungary expecting 1.26 goals and Northern Ireland 0.99.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Hungary vs Northern Ireland?
Bawler's model expects 2.2 goals in total. It leans towards two goals or fewer: over 2.5 goals is only 39%.