FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Monday, 05 October 2026

Northern Ireland 0–0 GeorgiaMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 05 October 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Northern Ireland to win at 60%. Bawler had Northern Ireland at 60%, the draw at 25% and Georgia at 14%. The match finished 0–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Northern Ireland win
60%
Draw
25%
Result
Georgia win
14%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.7 – 0.7
Total 2.4
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−2.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.8 – 0.3
From the match itself

The match produced 2.4 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Northern Ireland to win
Pre-match: 60%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 21%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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