FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Friday, 02 October 2026

Ukraine 0–3 Northern IrelandMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 02 October 2026

Ukraine
0–3
Northern Ireland win
Northern Ireland

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Ukraine or draw at 74%. Bawler had Ukraine at 44%, the draw at 30% and Northern Ireland at 26%. The match finished 0–3.

Pre-match probability vs result

Ukraine win
44%
Draw
30%
Northern Ireland win
26%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.3 – 1.0
Total 2.3
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (+0.7 against our forecast)

The match produced 0.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Ukraine or draw
Pre-match: 74%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 20%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Ukraine's superior shot quality—a 0.31 expected-goals edge—underpins the Ukraine or draw forecast at 73%, where home control or a stalemate dominates the model's outlook."

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