FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Friday, 02 October 2026

Hungary 1–0 GeorgiaMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 02 October 2026

Hungary
1–0
Hungary win
Georgia

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Hungary to win at 63%. Bawler had Hungary at 63%, the draw at 23% and Georgia at 14%. The match finished 1–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Hungary win
63%
Result
Draw
23%
Georgia win
14%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.9 – 0.8
Total 2.6
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.0 – 0.4
From the match itself

The match produced 1.6 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Hungary to win
Pre-match: 63%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 27%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Hungary's home advantage translates to a dominant expected-goals edge of 1.06, underpinning the model's 62% win-probability forecast for the hosts."

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