Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelNice on top, with Elye Wahi our likeliest to test the keeper.
Nice v Troyes prediction
Our model gives Nice 48%, the draw 26% and Troyes 26%, so Nice start as favourites. Our predicted score is Nice 1–0 Troyes: the most likely score if Nice win, at 10%. Our expected goals are 1.7 for Nice and 1.2 for Troyes, 2.8 in all. Both sides are more likely than not to score (56%) and three or more goals is 54%.
In their last six games Nice have five wins, no draws and one defeat, while Troyes have one win, one draw and four defeats. Nice won their most recent match and Troyes lost theirs. Of the players, Elye Wahi (Nice) tops both our lists, with 2.9 shots and 1.4 on target expected if they start. Elye Wahi of Nice is the most booked player in either squad, once every 2 games in 2026/27.
We expect Nice to have 14.6 shots (5.3 on target) and Troyes 12.5 (3.6 on target), and corners at 5.3 to 4.4. Of their last five meetings on our records, Nice have won four, Troyes one. The last meeting ended Troyes 0–1 Nice, in Apr 2023. Bawler's pick for this game is Nice or Draw, Nice Over 10.5 Shots and Elye Wahi 1+ Shot on Target. Our model gives all three landing together a 48% chance, which makes the fair price 11/10 (2.10).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Nice · last 6
Troyes · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Nice or draw is 74% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Ligue 1 table →Common questions
Who will win Nice vs Troyes?
Bawler's model rates this match: Nice are favoured (48% win probability vs 26% for Troyes, 26% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Nice vs Troyes?
Bawler's predicted score is Nice 1-0 Troyes: the most likely score if Nice win, which is the likeliest result (48%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.5%. Expected total goals: 2.8.
How does Bawler predict Nice vs Troyes?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Nice 48%, the draw 26% and Troyes 26%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Troyes?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 56% chance. That is based on Nice expecting 1.66 goals and Troyes 1.18.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Nice vs Troyes?
Bawler's model expects 2.8 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 54%.
When are the Nice v Troyes line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Nice v Troyes?
Nice or Draw (74%), Nice Over 10.5 Shots (80%), Elye Wahi 1+ Shot on Target (71%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 48% chance, a fair price of 11/10 (2.10). 18+, please gamble responsibly.