Bawler's pick
4 legs, built by our modelAn open game: both sides to score, with Seb Palmer Houlden and Thibault Klidje both getting shots away.
Motherwell v Hibernian prediction
Motherwell are favourites on our numbers: 41% to win, against 32% for Hibernian and 26% for a draw. Our predicted score is Motherwell 2–1 Hibernian: the most likely score if Motherwell win, at 9%. We expect 2.9 goals in total: 1.5 for Motherwell and 1.3 for Hibernian. Both teams scoring is 58% and three or more goals is 54%.
Of the players, Seb Palmer Houlden of Motherwell tops our shots forecast at 2.9, if they start. Tawanda Maswanhise (Motherwell) leads for shots on target, at 1.1. For cards, Callum Hendry (Motherwell) has been booked once every 2 games in 2025/26, more often than anyone else here. In their last six games Motherwell have one win, two draws and three defeats, while Hibernian have two wins, one draw and three defeats. Motherwell drew their most recent match and Hibernian won theirs.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Motherwell have won three, Hibernian none, and two were drawn. When they last met, it finished Hibernian 1–2 Motherwell, in Aug 2026. On shots, our forecast is 15.0 for Motherwell and 11.2 for Hibernian, with 5.0 and 3.9 on target, and corners at 5.2 to 4.5. So we expect Motherwell to do more of the shooting. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Both Teams to Score, Over 21.5 Total Shots, Seb Palmer Houlden 1+ Shot and Thibault Klidje 1+ Shot. The chance all four land is 42% on our numbers, so the fair price is 11/8, or 2.39.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Motherwell · last 6
Hibernian · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Motherwell or draw is 68% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27 and 2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Premiership table →Common questions
Who will win Motherwell vs Hibernian?
Bawler's model rates this match: Motherwell are favoured (41% win probability vs 32% for Hibernian, 26% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Motherwell vs Hibernian?
Bawler's predicted score is Motherwell 2-1 Hibernian: the most likely score if Motherwell win, which is the likeliest result (41%). Our model puts that exact score at 8.7%. Expected total goals: 2.9.
How does Bawler predict Motherwell vs Hibernian?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Motherwell 41%, the draw 26% and Hibernian 32%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Motherwell vs Hibernian?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 58% chance. That is based on Motherwell expecting 1.53 goals and Hibernian 1.33.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Motherwell vs Hibernian?
Bawler's model expects 2.9 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 54%.
When are the Motherwell v Hibernian line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Motherwell v Hibernian?
Both Teams to Score (58%), Over 21.5 Total Shots (79%), Seb Palmer Houlden 1+ Shot (91%), Thibault Klidje 1+ Shot (80%). Our model gives all 4 landing together a 42% chance, a fair price of 11/8 (2.39). 18+, please gamble responsibly.