Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelRangers on top, and Min-Su Kim getting plenty of shots away.
Motherwell v Rangers prediction
Our model gives Motherwell 28%, the draw 25% and Rangers 47%, so Rangers start as favourites. Our predicted score is Motherwell 1–2 Rangers: the most likely score if Rangers win, at 9%. We expect 3.0 goals in total: 1.3 for Motherwell and 1.7 for Rangers. Both sides are more likely than not to score (60%) and three or more goals is 59%.
In their last six games Motherwell have one win, two draws and three defeats, while Rangers have four wins, two draws and no defeats. Motherwell drew their most recent match and Rangers won theirs. We expect Motherwell to have 12.1 shots (4.5 on target) and Rangers 14.1 (4.4 on target), and corners at 3.6 to 5.6.
Seb Palmer Houlden (Motherwell) is the player we expect to shoot most, with 2.5 shots if they start. Tawanda Maswanhise (Motherwell) leads for shots on target, at 1.1. Callum Hendry of Motherwell is the most booked player in either squad, once every 2 games in 2025/26. Of their last five meetings on our records, Motherwell have won one, Rangers two, and two were drawn. The last meeting ended Rangers 1–0 Motherwell, in Sept 2026. Bawler's pick for this game is Rangers or Draw, Rangers Over 10.5 Shots and Min-Su Kim 2+ Shots. Our model gives all three landing together a 39% chance, which makes the fair price 13/8 (2.59).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Motherwell · last 6
Rangers · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Rangers or draw is 72% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27 and 2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Premiership table →Common questions
Who will win Motherwell vs Rangers?
Bawler's model rates this match: Rangers are favoured (47% win probability vs 28% for Motherwell, 25% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Motherwell vs Rangers?
Bawler's predicted score is Motherwell 1-2 Rangers: the most likely score if Rangers win, which is the likeliest result (47%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.2%. Expected total goals: 3.0.
How does Bawler predict Motherwell vs Rangers?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Motherwell 28%, the draw 25% and Rangers 47%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Motherwell vs Rangers?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 60% chance. That is based on Motherwell expecting 1.31 goals and Rangers 1.73.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Motherwell vs Rangers?
Bawler's model expects 3.0 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 59%.
When are the Motherwell v Rangers line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Motherwell v Rangers?
Rangers or Draw (72%), Rangers Over 10.5 Shots (77%), Min-Su Kim 2+ Shots (64%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 39% chance, a fair price of 13/8 (2.59). 18+, please gamble responsibly.