Moreirense beat Maritimo 3–1. Moreirense had 11 shots (5 on target) to Maritimo's 9 (2), with 38% of the ball against 62%. Expected goals finished 2.0 to 0.8.
The grey number is their average over the last six.
How likely we said each side was to reach these totals before half-time.
Moreirense beat Maritimo 3–1. Moreirense had 11 shots (5 on target) to Maritimo's 9 (2), with 38% of the ball against 62%. Expected goals finished 2.0 to 0.8.
Moreirense 3–1 Maritimo, played on 14 Sept 2026 in the Portugal: Primeira Liga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Moreirense 37%, the draw 28% and Maritimo 35%.
Full-time: Possession 38%–62%, Expected goals (xG) 2.0–0.8, Shots 11–9, Shots on target 5–2, Shots inside box 7–6, Big chances 4–1, Corners 3–5, Saves 1–1, Fouls 14–16, Offsides 0–0, Yellow cards 1–3.
Yes — both Moreirense and Maritimo scored, finishing 3–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 53% before kickoff.