Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelMillwall on top: we expect them to avoid defeat and do most of the shooting.
Millwall v Burnley prediction
Our model gives Millwall 47%, the draw 24% and Burnley 29%, so Millwall start as favourites. Our predicted score is Millwall 2–1 Burnley, the likeliest Millwall win score (9%). We expect 3.2 goals in total: 1.8 for Millwall and 1.4 for Burnley. Both sides are more likely than not to score (62%) and three or more goals is 61%.
On form, Millwall have one win, one draw and four defeats from their last six games, and Burnley have no wins, three draws and three defeats. We expect Millwall to have 16.7 shots (5.8 on target) and Burnley 11.2 (3.6 on target), and corners at 6.0 to 4.5. That points to Millwall doing more of the attacking.
Kyrell Lisbie (Millwall) is the player we expect to shoot most, with 3.2 shots if they start. Andréas Hountondji (Burnley) leads for shots on target, at 0.9. Hannibal Mejbri of Burnley is the most booked player in either squad, about once a game in 2025/26. Of their last five meetings on our records, Millwall have won one, Burnley three, and one was drawn. The last meeting ended Burnley 5–1 Millwall, in Jan 2026. Bawler's pick for this game is Millwall or Draw, Millwall Over 12.5 Shots and Millwall Over 3.5 Shots on Target. Our model gives all three landing together a 48% chance, which makes the fair price 11/10 (2.09).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Millwall · last 6
Burnley · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Millwall or draw is 71% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Championship table →Common questions
Who will win Millwall vs Burnley?
Bawler's model rates this match: Millwall are favoured (47% win probability vs 29% for Burnley, 24% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Millwall vs Burnley?
Bawler's predicted score is Millwall 2-1 Burnley: the most likely score if Millwall win, which is the likeliest result (47%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.2%. Expected total goals: 3.2.
How does Bawler predict Millwall vs Burnley?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Millwall 47%, the draw 24% and Burnley 29%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Millwall vs Burnley?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 62% chance. That is based on Millwall expecting 1.79 goals and Burnley 1.36.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Millwall vs Burnley?
Bawler's model expects 3.2 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 61%.
When are the Millwall v Burnley line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Millwall v Burnley?
Millwall or Draw (71%), Millwall Over 12.5 Shots (79%), Millwall Over 3.5 Shots on Target (79%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 48% chance, a fair price of 11/10 (2.09). 18+, please gamble responsibly.