Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelBurnley on top: we expect them to avoid defeat and do most of the shooting.
Burnley v Blackburn Rovers prediction
Burnley are favourites on our numbers: 53% to win, against 23% for Blackburn Rovers and 24% for a draw. Our predicted score is Burnley 2–1 Blackburn Rovers: the most likely score if Burnley win, at 10%. Burnley are expected to score 1.9 goals and Blackburn Rovers 1.1, 3.0 between them. Both teams scoring is 58% and three or more goals is 58%.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Burnley have won four, Blackburn Rovers none, and one was drawn. When they last met, it finished Blackburn Rovers 0–1 Burnley, in Jan 2025. Burnley come in with one win, three draws and two defeats in their last six. Blackburn Rovers have three wins, no draws and three defeats over the same run.
For cards, Hannibal Mejbri (Burnley) has been booked about once a game in 2025/26, more often than anyone else here. On shots, our forecast is 14.2 for Burnley and 13.7 for Blackburn Rovers, with 3.3 and 4.4 on target, and corners at 4.6 to 5.3. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Burnley or Draw, Burnley Over 10.5 Shots and Burnley Over 1.5 Shots on Target. The chance all three land is 52% on our numbers, so the fair price is 10/11, or 1.92.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Burnley · last 6
Blackburn Rovers · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Burnley or draw is 77% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
Championship table →Common questions
Who will win Burnley vs Blackburn Rovers?
Bawler's model rates this match: Burnley are favoured (53% win probability vs 23% for Blackburn Rovers, 24% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Burnley vs Blackburn Rovers?
Bawler's predicted score is Burnley 2-1 Blackburn Rovers: the most likely score if Burnley win, which is the likeliest result (53%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.7%. Expected total goals: 3.0.
How does Bawler predict Burnley vs Blackburn Rovers?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Burnley 53%, the draw 24% and Blackburn Rovers 23%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Blackburn Rovers?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 58% chance. That is based on Burnley expecting 1.87 goals and Blackburn Rovers 1.15.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Burnley vs Blackburn Rovers?
Bawler's model expects 3.0 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 58%.
When are the Burnley v Blackburn Rovers line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Burnley v Blackburn Rovers?
Burnley or Draw (77%), Burnley Over 10.5 Shots (77%), Burnley Over 1.5 Shots on Target (81%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 52% chance, a fair price of 10/11 (1.92). 18+, please gamble responsibly.