Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelMillwall on top: we expect them to avoid defeat and do most of the shooting.
Millwall v Queens Park Rangers prediction
Our model gives Millwall 46%, the draw 26% and Queens Park Rangers 28%, so Millwall start as favourites. Our predicted score is Millwall 2–1 Queens Park Rangers, the likeliest Millwall win score (9%). We expect 2.9 goals in total: 1.6 for Millwall and 1.2 for Queens Park Rangers. Both sides are more likely than not to score (57%) and three or more goals is 55%.
Millwall come in with one win, one draw and four defeats in their last six. Queens Park Rangers have three wins, one draw and two defeats over the same run. Of their last five meetings on our records, Millwall have won three, Queens Park Rangers none, and two were drawn. The last meeting ended Queens Park Rangers 1–1 Millwall, in Aug 2026.
We expect Millwall to have 14.6 shots (4.4 on target) and Queens Park Rangers 11.8 (3.6 on target), and corners at 6.7 to 4.8. Kyrell Lisbie (Millwall) is the player we expect to shoot most, with 2.9 shots if they start. Richard Kone (Queens Park Rangers) leads for shots on target, at 0.9. Jonathan Varane of Queens Park Rangers is the most booked player in either squad, once every 2 games in 2026/27. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Millwall or Draw, Millwall Over 10.5 Shots and Millwall Over 2.5 Shots on Target. The chance all three land is 48% on our numbers, so the fair price is 11/10, or 2.10.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Millwall · last 6
Queens Park Rangers · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Millwall or draw is 72% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Championship table →Common questions
Who will win Millwall vs Queens Park Rangers?
Bawler's model rates this match: Millwall are favoured (46% win probability vs 28% for Queens Park Rangers, 26% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Millwall vs Queens Park Rangers?
Bawler's predicted score is Millwall 2-1 Queens Park Rangers: the most likely score if Millwall win, which is the likeliest result (46%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.2%. Expected total goals: 2.9.
How does Bawler predict Millwall vs Queens Park Rangers?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Millwall 46%, the draw 26% and Queens Park Rangers 28%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Millwall vs Queens Park Rangers?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 57% chance. That is based on Millwall expecting 1.63 goals and Queens Park Rangers 1.24.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Millwall vs Queens Park Rangers?
Bawler's model expects 2.9 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 55%.
When are the Millwall v Queens Park Rangers line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Millwall v Queens Park Rangers?
Millwall or Draw (72%), Millwall Over 10.5 Shots (80%), Millwall Over 2.5 Shots on Target (77%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 48% chance, a fair price of 11/10 (2.10). 18+, please gamble responsibly.