Mexico vs Peru prediction — International friendlies · Wed 30 Sept · 03:30 UK · Neutral venue

International friendlies · Wed 30 Sept · 03:30 UK · Neutral venue
83Mexico win13Draw4Peru win
Full time
1–1

How it finished

Mexico and Peru drew 1–1. Mexico had 9 shots (3 on target) to Peru's 5 (2), with 64% of the ball against 36%. Expected goals finished 0.5 to 0.3.

MexicoFull-time statsPeru
64%Possession36%
0.5Expected goals (xG)0.3
9Shots5
3Shots on target2
2Shots inside box2
1Big chances1
4Corners4
1Saves3
15Fouls10
2Offsides2
1Yellow cards4
We predicted
2–0
Mexico to win · 15% for this exact score
Expected goals
2.7v0.5
3.1 in total
Both teams score
35%
No
3+ goals
60%
Likely

What we expected from each side

The grey number is their average over the last six.

MexicoMexicoPeruPeru
2.7Goals0.5
MexicoMexicoPeruPeru
1.2Goals0.2
MexicoMexicoPeruPeru
1.5Goals0.3

Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.

What we said the chances were

Mexico to score93%
2 or more goals82%
Goal before half-time75%
3 goals or fewer62%

First half — what we expected

Mexico
69%
to score before half-time
Peru
19%
to score before half-time

Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.

Head to head

Sept 2022Mexico 1–0 Peru
Jun 2015Peru 1–1 Mexico
Apr 2013Peru 0–0 Mexico
Jul 2011Peru 1–0 Mexico
Full-time recap →
Every Bawler's pick is logged before kickoff · Bawler's pick record →

Around this fixture

All fixtures & results →Mexico form →Peru form →

Common questions

Who won Mexico vs Peru?

Mexico and Peru drew 1–1. Mexico had 9 shots (3 on target) to Peru's 5 (2), with 64% of the ball against 36%. Expected goals finished 0.5 to 0.3.

What was the final score in Mexico vs Peru?

Mexico 1–1 Peru, played on 30 Sept 2026 in the World: International Friendly. Bawler's model had gone into it with Mexico 83%, the draw 13% and Peru 4%.

What were the stats in Mexico vs Peru?

Full-time: Possession 64%–36%, Expected goals (xG) 0.5–0.3, Shots 9–5, Shots on target 3–2, Shots inside box 2–2, Big chances 1–1, Corners 4–4, Saves 1–3, Fouls 15–10, Offsides 2–2, Yellow cards 1–4.

Did both teams score in Mexico vs Peru?

Yes — both Mexico and Peru scored, finishing 1–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 35% before kickoff.