FT · World: International Friendly · Wednesday, 07 October 2026

Colombia 2–0 PeruMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 07 October 2026

Colombia
2–0
Colombia win
Peru

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Colombia to win at 84%. Bawler had Colombia at 84%, the draw at 13% and Peru at 4%. The match finished 2–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Colombia win
84%
Result
Draw
13%
Peru win
4%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.6 – 0.4
Total 3.0
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−1.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 0.4
From the match itself

The match produced 1.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Colombia to win
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 36%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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