FT · World: International Friendly · Sunday, 04 October 2026

United States 3–0 MexicoMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 04 October 2026

United States
3–0
United States win
Mexico

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was United States or draw at 63%. Bawler had United States at 38%, the draw at 25% and Mexico at 37%. The match finished 3–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

United States win
38%
Result
Draw
25%
Mexico win
37%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.6 – 1.6
Total 3.1
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (−0.1 against our forecast)

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 3.1.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 81% because both teams generate nearly identical attacking threat—United States 1.57 xG and Mexico 1.51 xG—leaving little defensive margin in a fixture where Giménez and Lozano command Mexico's creation."

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