FT · World: International Friendly · Saturday, 03 October 2026

Canada 2–0 PeruMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 03 October 2026

Canada
2–0
Canada win
Peru

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Canada to win at 70%. Bawler had Canada at 70%, the draw at 21% and Peru at 9%. The match finished 2–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Canada win
70%
Result
Draw
21%
Peru win
9%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.0 – 0.6
Total 2.6
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 0.2
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.6 of our 2.6.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Canada to win
Pre-match: 70%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 26%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Canada's home advantage pairs with Alphonso Davies's creative spark to deliver a **Home Win** forecast: the hosts command a 1.40 xG edge and 70% win probability against Peru's anemic attack."

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