Mexico vs Colombia prediction — International friendlies · Sun 27 Sept · 02:00 UK · Neutral venue

International friendlies · Sun 27 Sept · 02:00 UK · Neutral venue
40Mexico win30Draw30Colombia win
Full time
1–1

How it finished

Mexico and Colombia drew 1–1. Mexico had 16 shots (4 on target) to Colombia's 5 (2), with 52% of the ball against 48%. Expected goals finished 1.2 to 0.6.

MexicoFull-time statsColombia
52%Possession48%
1.2Expected goals (xG)0.6
16Shots5
4Shots on target2
9Shots inside box4
3Big chances1
2Corners5
1Saves3
19Fouls18
1Offsides0
2Yellow cards2
We predicted
1–0
Likeliest score if Mexico win (12%). Single likeliest exact score: 1–1 (14%)
Expected goals
1.3v1.1
2.4 in total
Both teams score
48%
Leans no
3+ goals
42%
Leans unlikely

What we expected from each side

The grey number is their average over the last six.

MexicoMexicoColombiaColombia
1.3Goals1.1
MexicoMexicoColombiaColombia
0.6Goals0.5
MexicoMexicoColombiaColombia
0.7Goals0.6

Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.

What we said the chances were

3 goals or fewer79%
Mexico to score72%
2 or more goals68%
Colombia to score66%
Goal before half-time65%

First half — what we expected

Mexico
43%
to score before half-time
Colombia
38%
to score before half-time

Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.

Head to head

Oct 2025Mexico 0–4 Colombia
Sept 2022Colombia 3–2 Mexico
Mar 2012Mexico 0–2 Colombia
Sept 2010Mexico 1–0 Colombia
Full-time recap →
Every Bawler's pick is logged before kickoff · Bawler's pick record →

Around this fixture

All fixtures & results →Mexico form →Colombia form →

Common questions

Who won Mexico vs Colombia?

Mexico and Colombia drew 1–1. Mexico had 16 shots (4 on target) to Colombia's 5 (2), with 52% of the ball against 48%. Expected goals finished 1.2 to 0.6.

What was the final score in Mexico vs Colombia?

Mexico 1–1 Colombia, played on 27 Sept 2026 in the World: International Friendly. Bawler's model had gone into it with Mexico 40%, the draw 30% and Colombia 30%.

What were the stats in Mexico vs Colombia?

Full-time: Possession 52%–48%, Expected goals (xG) 1.2–0.6, Shots 16–5, Shots on target 4–2, Shots inside box 9–4, Big chances 3–1, Corners 2–5, Saves 1–3, Fouls 19–18, Offsides 1–0, Yellow cards 2–2.

Did both teams score in Mexico vs Colombia?

Yes — both Mexico and Colombia scored, finishing 1–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 48% before kickoff.