What we expect
In plain English
Mexico are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. Colombia have won three of the last four between them. The model sees around two goals in it.
What would change the call
Mexico or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Mexico vs Colombia?
Bawler's model rates this match: Mexico are favoured (41% win probability vs 30% for Colombia, 30% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Mexico vs Colombia?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Mexico 1-1 Colombia (13.9% probability). Expected total goals: 2.34.
How does Bawler predict Mexico vs Colombia?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Mexico 41%, the draw 30% and Colombia 30%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Mexico vs Colombia?
BTTS: No (53% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 1.28 and away expected goals 1.06.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Mexico vs Colombia?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.34. The lean is Under 2.5 (likely a tighter affair).