FT · World: International Friendly · Saturday, 03 October 2026

Colombia 0–1 ParaguayMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 03 October 2026

Colombia
0–1
Paraguay win
Paraguay

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Colombia to win at 66%. Bawler had Colombia at 66%, the draw at 23% and Paraguay at 11%. The match finished 0–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Colombia win
66%
Draw
23%
Paraguay win
11%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.8 – 0.6
Total 2.4
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−1.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 1.0
From the match itself

The match produced 1.4 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Colombia to win
Pre-match: 66%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 22%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Colombia's home win is the high-confidence call at 66%, backed by a 1.22 expected-goals advantage and Luis Díaz leading their attack at 22% of team xG."

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