Germany: BundesligaSaturday 29 Aug, 13:30 UTC

Mainz vSC Paderborn 07

Most likely scoreline
1–1
11% of the time · 2.83 goals expected
Mainz 53%Draw 25%SC Paderborn 07 21%
How we get there
MainzstepSC Paderborn 07
1.69Base xG · rolling 26-match1.14
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.69Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.14

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

Mainz average 6.0 corners per game at home this season (22 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
7
4
1
1
10
11
6
2
1
2
8
10
5
2
1
3
5
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Mainz fixtures & form →SC Paderborn 07 fixtures & form →

Mainz vs SC Paderborn 07 — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Mainz and SC Paderborn 07 — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Mainz 53% · draw 25% · SC Paderborn 07 21%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

Mainz predictions & form →SC Paderborn 07 predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.