Match prediction·BELGIUM: Jupiler Pro League·Sunday 16 Aug, 17:15 UTC

Lommel SK vs Royal Charleroi SC

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
40.0% home28.0% draw32.0% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
Lommel SKstepRoyal Charleroi SC
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10
🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Lommel SK or Draw
68%
Over 2.5 goals
52%
Lommel SK Win
40%
Draw
28%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

Lommel SK vs Royal Charleroi — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Lommel SK and Royal Charleroi — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Lommel SK 40% · draw 28% · Royal Charleroi 32%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.