FT · Belgium: Pro League · Friday, 04 September 2026
Lommel SK 0–1 Club BruggeMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 04 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Lommel SK at 17%, draw at 22%, Club Brugge at 62%. The match ended 0-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Club Brugge.
> Pre-match probability vs result
SK win
17%
Draw
22%
Brugge win
62%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.00 – 2.09
Total 3.09
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-2.1 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.1 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Away Win
Pre-match: 62%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 37%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Club Brugge's away win is the high-confidence call, backed by a 1.09 expected-goals advantage and a 62% forecast win probability that reflects their attacking edge."