FT · Belgium: Pro League · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Cercle Brugge KSV 0–1 Lommel SKMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 29 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Cercle Brugge KSV at 54%, draw at 24%, Lommel SK at 23%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was Cercle Brugge KSV to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
KSV win
54%
Draw
24%
SK win
23%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.91 – 1.17
Total 3.08
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-2.1 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.1 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 54%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 37%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 81%, anchored by Cercle Brugge's 0.74 expected-goals advantage and a combined xG total of 3.08 that tilts decisively toward multiple strikes."