Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelLille on top, and Soriba Diaoune getting plenty of shots away.
Le Mans v Lille prediction
Our model makes Lille favourites for this Ligue 1 game, giving them a 47% chance of winning. Le Mans are 27% and the draw is 26%. Our predicted score is Le Mans 0–1 Lille: the most likely score if Lille win, at 10%. We expect 2.8 goals in total: 1.2 for Le Mans and 1.6 for Lille. Both teams scoring is 56% and three or more goals is 53%.
On shots, our forecast is 11.7 for Le Mans and 14.8 for Lille, with 4.3 and 5.0 on target, and corners at 4.0 to 5.4. So we expect Lille to do more of the shooting. Soriba Diaoune is the player we expect to shoot most: 2.8 shots and 1.0 on target for Lille, if they start. For cards, Alexandre Lauray (Le Mans) has been booked about once a game in 2026/27, more often than anyone else here.
They have met once on our records, and it ended Le Mans 2–4 Lille, in Jan 2018. Le Mans come in with one win, two draws and three defeats in their last six. Lille have two wins, three draws and one defeat over the same run. Bawler's pick combines Lille or Draw, Lille Over 10.5 Shots and Soriba Diaoune 2+ Shots. We make the chance of all three coming in 47%, a fair price of 11/10 (2.14).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Le Mans · last 6
Lille · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Lille or draw is 73% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Ligue 1 table →Common questions
Who will win Le Mans vs Lille?
Bawler's model rates this match: Lille are favoured (47% win probability vs 27% for Le Mans, 26% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Le Mans vs Lille?
Bawler's predicted score is Le Mans 0-1 Lille: the most likely score if Lille win, which is the likeliest result (47%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.6%. Expected total goals: 2.8.
How does Bawler predict Le Mans vs Lille?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Le Mans 27%, the draw 26% and Lille 47%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Le Mans vs Lille?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 56% chance. That is based on Le Mans expecting 1.18 goals and Lille 1.63.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Le Mans vs Lille?
Bawler's model expects 2.8 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 53%.
When are the Le Mans v Lille line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Le Mans v Lille?
Lille or Draw (73%), Lille Over 10.5 Shots (81%), Soriba Diaoune 2+ Shots (72%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 47% chance, a fair price of 11/10 (2.14). 18+, please gamble responsibly.