Match prediction·BELGIUM: Jupiler Pro League·Saturday 08 Aug, 18:45 UTC

KVC Westerlo vs Union St.-Gilloise

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
35.7% home31.4% draw32.9% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
KVC WesterlostepUnion St.-Gilloise
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10

KVC Westerlo average 4.5 corners per game at home this season (2 competitive matches). Union St.-Gilloise average 6.7 corners per game away from home this season (3 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
75%
Under 2.5 goals
53%
Union St.-Gilloise to win
25%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

KVC Westerlo vs Union St.-Gilloise — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between KVC Westerlo and Union St.-Gilloise — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: KVC Westerlo 36% · draw 31% · Union St.-Gilloise 33%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

⚡ Full-time recap available
KVC Westerlo 15 Union St.-Gilloise
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.