Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelRiga FC on top: we expect them to avoid defeat and do most of the shooting.
Kauno Zalgiris v Riga FC prediction
Our model makes Riga FC favourites for this Conference League game, giving them a 42% chance of winning. Kauno Zalgiris are 30% and the draw is 28%. If you want one score, our predicted score is Kauno Zalgiris 0–1 Riga FC, the most likely Riga FC win (10%). We expect 2.6 goals in total: 1.2 for Kauno Zalgiris and 1.4 for Riga FC. Both sides are more likely than not to score (52%) and three or more goals is 48%.
In their last six games Kauno Zalgiris have two wins, one draw and three defeats, while Riga FC have two wins, four draws and no defeats. Kauno Zalgiris lost their most recent match and Riga FC drew theirs.
We expect Kauno Zalgiris to have 9.0 shots (3.5 on target) and Riga FC 17.6 (5.5 on target), and corners at 3.7 to 5.9. That points to Riga FC doing more of the attacking. Bawler's pick combines Riga FC or Draw, Riga FC Over 13.5 Shots and Riga FC Over 2.5 Shots on Target. We make the chance of all three coming in 51%, a fair price of 10/11 (1.95).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
What we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Kauno Zalgiris · last 6
Riga FC · last 6
League position
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Riga FC or draw is 70% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
Common questions
Who will win Kauno Zalgiris vs Riga FC?
Bawler's model rates this match: Riga FC are favoured (42% win probability vs 30% for Kauno Zalgiris, 28% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Kauno Zalgiris vs Riga FC?
Bawler's predicted score is Kauno Zalgiris 0-1 Riga FC: the most likely score if Riga FC win, which is the likeliest result (42%). Our model puts that exact score at 10.5%. Expected total goals: 2.6.
How does Bawler predict Kauno Zalgiris vs Riga FC?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Kauno Zalgiris 30%, the draw 28% and Riga FC 42%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Kauno Zalgiris vs Riga FC?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. That is based on Kauno Zalgiris expecting 1.17 goals and Riga FC 1.43.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Kauno Zalgiris vs Riga FC?
Bawler's model expects 2.6 goals in total. It leans slightly towards two goals or fewer: over 2.5 goals is 48%.
When are the Kauno Zalgiris v Riga FC line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Kauno Zalgiris v Riga FC?
Riga FC or Draw (70%), Riga FC Over 13.5 Shots (77%), Riga FC Over 2.5 Shots on Target (88%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 51% chance, a fair price of 10/11 (1.95). 18+, please gamble responsibly.