FT · Europe: Conference League · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Riga FC 1–1 Kairat AlmatyMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Riga FC or draw at 77%. Bawler had Riga FC at 51%, the draw at 26% and Kairat Almaty at 23%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Riga FC win
51%
Draw
26%
Result
Kairat Almaty win
23%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.0
Total 2.6
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.3 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced 0.6 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Riga FC or draw
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 51%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.