Match prediction·BELGIUM: Jupiler Pro League·Sunday 09 Aug, 11:30 UTC

KAA Gent vs KV Mechelen

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
53.4% home28.4% draw18.1% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
KAA GentstepKV Mechelen
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10

KAA Gent average 5.3 corners per game at home this season (3 competitive matches). KV Mechelen average 4.4 corners per game away from home this season (22 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
76%
Both teams to score
53%
KV Mechelen or draw
25%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

KAA Gent vs KV Mechelen — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between KAA Gent and KV Mechelen — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: KAA Gent 53% · draw 28% · KV Mechelen 18%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

⚡ Full-time recap available
KAA Gent 20 KV Mechelen
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.