FT · EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026
KAA Gent 0–0 HibernianMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 20 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had KAA Gent at 52%, draw at 25%, Hibernian at 23%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was KAA Gent to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Gent win
52%
Draw
25%
Actual ✓
Hibernian win
23%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.75 – 1.09
Total 2.84
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-2.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✓ Won