FT · Belgium: Pro League · Sunday, 16 August 2026
KV Mechelen 3–3 Standard LiegeMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was KV Mechelen or draw at 72%. Bawler had KV Mechelen at 41%, the draw at 31% and Standard Liege at 28%. The match finished 3–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
KV Mechelen win
41%
Draw
31%
Result
Standard Liege win
28%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.2
Total 2.7
Actual
3 – 3
Total 6 (+3.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.8 – 1.7
From the match itself
The match produced 3.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 24%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Mechelen's 1.51 expected goals edge and 41% win probability give the hosts the slight upper hand, but Standard's 1.22 xG keeps this tight enough for Over 1.5 Goals to land at a robust 78% forecast."