Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelToo close to call the result, so we back the game to be busy: shots, corners and efforts on target.
Jablonec v FC Lugano prediction
Our model makes Jablonec favourites for this Conference League game, giving them a 42% chance of winning. FC Lugano are 31% and the draw is 27%. Our predicted score is Jablonec 1–0 FC Lugano, the likeliest Jablonec win score (9%). We expect 2.8 goals in total: 1.5 for Jablonec and 1.2 for FC Lugano. Both sides are more likely than not to score (55%) and three or more goals is 52%.
Jablonec come in with one win, three draws and two defeats in their last six. FC Lugano have four wins, no draws and two defeats over the same run.
We expect Jablonec to have 14.4 shots (4.9 on target) and FC Lugano 13.7 (4.9 on target), and corners at 5.5 to 4.3. Bawler's pick for this game is Over 23.5 Total Shots, Over 6.5 Total Corners and Over 6.5 Total Shots on Target. Our model gives all three landing together a 64% chance, which makes the fair price 4/7 (1.56).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
What we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Jablonec · last 6
FC Lugano · last 6
League position
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Jablonec or draw is 69% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
Common questions
Who will win Jablonec vs FC Lugano?
Bawler's model rates this match: Jablonec are favoured (42% win probability vs 31% for FC Lugano, 27% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Jablonec vs FC Lugano?
Bawler's predicted score is Jablonec 1-0 FC Lugano: the most likely score if Jablonec win, which is the likeliest result (42%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.4%. Expected total goals: 2.8.
How does Bawler predict Jablonec vs FC Lugano?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Jablonec 42%, the draw 27% and FC Lugano 31%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Jablonec vs FC Lugano?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 55% chance. That is based on Jablonec expecting 1.50 goals and FC Lugano 1.25.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Jablonec vs FC Lugano?
Bawler's model expects 2.8 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 52%.
When are the Jablonec v FC Lugano line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Jablonec v FC Lugano?
Over 23.5 Total Shots (78%), Over 6.5 Total Corners (83%), Over 6.5 Total Shots on Target (84%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 64% chance, a fair price of 4/7 (1.56). 18+, please gamble responsibly.