FT · Europe: Conference League · Thursday, 15 October 2026
FC Lugano 3–2 Red Star BelgradeMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was FC Lugano or draw at 68%. Bawler had FC Lugano at 42%, the draw at 26% and Red Star Belgrade at 32%. The match finished 3–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Lugano win
42%
Result
Draw
26%
Red Star Belgrade win
32%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.3
Total 2.8
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+2.2 against our forecast)
The match produced 2.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.