Match prediction·Turkey: Süper Lig·Sunday 16 Aug, 16:00 UTC

Istanbul Basaksehir vs Kocaelispor

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
61.0% home23.7% draw15.3% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
Istanbul BasaksehirstepKocaelispor
1.68Base xG · rolling 26-match0.92
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.68Final goal estimate — what the model uses0.92

Basaksehir average 4.4 corners per game at home this season (17 competitive matches). Kocaelispor average 3.8 corners per game away from home this season (17 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
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13
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home windrawaway win

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

More predictions for these teams

Basaksehir vs Kocaelispor — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 6 April 2026, Basaksehir have won 0, Kocaelispor have won 0, with 1 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
6 April 2026Kocaelispor 00 BasaksehirTURKEY: Super Lig

The model's verdict for this fixture: Basaksehir 61% · draw 24% · Kocaelispor 15%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

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Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.