FT · TURKEY: Super Lig · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Trabzonspor 2–1 Istanbul BasaksehirMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 23 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Trabzonspor at 41%, draw at 26%, Istanbul Basaksehir at 33%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Trabzonspor.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Trabzonspor win
41%
Actual ✓
Draw
26%
Basaksehir win
33%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.59 – 1.42
Total 3.01
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (-0.0 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.0 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost