FT · TURKEY: Super Lig · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Istanbul Basaksehir 1–1 KasimpasaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 30 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Istanbul Basaksehir at 62%, draw at 23%, Kasimpasa at 15%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Istanbul Basaksehir to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Basaksehir win
62%
Draw
23%
Actual ✓
Kasimpasa win
15%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.95 – 0.86
Total 2.81
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 62%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 31%
✗ Lost